THOUGHT
LEADERSHIP

NATO’s strength and speed—both military and political—generate political options short of war. Both of these elements are necessary to counter the limited tactical advantages of Russian Federation forces and prevent further conflict. The risk of war—of either a land war or a nuclear escalation—is not zero, but with its strength and speed, NATO is generating the necessary options to prevent conflict. If deterrence fails, NATO will prevail.

The conduct of war is being fundamentally altered by the revolutionary impact of artificial intelligence (AI). The competition in AI and unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) marks the onset of the “7th Military Revolution” and the

As industrialized warfare collides with rapid technological attrition, defense supremacy will not be determined by who builds the best drone, but by who can outproduce, out-iterate, and out-adapt the fastest. Static acquisitions and niche innovation are insufficient.

The 2025 defense market shattered records with ~$218 billion in transaction volume (+102% YoY), defined by a dual mandate: rebuilding industrial capacity (“Steel”) and securing digital dominance (“Silicon”). Hardware & Industrial deals captured ~70% of total capital to address the “Empty Warehouse” crisis,